Gabriel Rodríguez-Puello

Digging for Trouble? Mining and Criminal Behavior of Young Males​​

This paper studies how a large, localized resource boom affects the criminal behavior of young males. I exploit the 2004 iron ore boom in Northern Sweden as an exogenous shock to local economic conditions and combine geocoded administrative data on all criminal convictions and demographics from 2000–2015 with a difference-in-differences design. Comparing young males living in the mining municipalities to young males of similar nearby municipalities, and exploiting fine-grained variation in distance to the mines, I identify the causal impact of improved local labor market opportunities on crime. The results show that the mining boom led to a large decline in property crime among young male residents aged 18–29, with no effects for older individuals. The reduction is concentrated within 20 kilometers of the mines and driven primarily by first-time offenders. In contrast, the probability of being convicted of drug-related crimes increases among young males, particularly among repeat offenders and individuals directly employed in the mining sector. There is no evidence of effects on violent or traffic crimes. Mechanism analysis shows that the boom substantially improved employment and earnings for local residents, while changes in migration patterns, policing, and income inequality do not explain the results. Overall, the findings provide new micro-level evidence that positive local labor market shocks can reduce economically motivated crime, while simultaneously increasing certain non-economic offenses. (JEL R11, K42, Q33, O13)